John Chapman
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Try Selling this Story!

27 July 2020

Fake news? “Difficult times”? JobKeeper changing! Bank moratoriums ending!

There were three pirates burying treasure in a cave and one said to the other –

“Tell us a story” … and this is how the story went …

Prices did drop post February 2020, certainly on the day “The World ended”, 23 March 2020. The first “lock down” announced. Then it got confusing. “Patchy” was and still is the word often used.

Some million dollar properties selling, lower priced properties offered a little more than initially thought, and others NOT selling.

Despite all the “doom and gloom”, prices in the Upper Blue Mountains seemed to hold although patchy.

Prices staying as they are, now, for the moment, because –

  1. There isVERY LITTLE new stock “For Sale” coming on.
  2. Sydney has yet another reason to buy out of the city – to escape the “disease” and potential further lockdown of the city. As one buyer put it to me recently, we need a “safe haven in reserve”.
  3. Sydney buyers are enjoying escaping and coming to Open Houses.

Therefore the impossible story to sell to contemplating Vendors is –

“IF YOU ARE GOING TO DO IT, DO IT NOW!”

WHY NOW?

What is certain is that JobKeeper and JobSeeker are significantly changed.

The Banks moratoriums are ending – “it’s extending by one month on a case by case basis”. We all know what that means from the Banks.

The registration of Transfer of Title Deeds across NSW dropped, wait for it, 70% in May and is only just recovering. That is a drop in turnover of Real Estate sales of more than 50% – now multiply that by $ Stamp Duty!

How can the Real Estate market possibly go up! With the doom and gloom, the “difficult times”, and Government support fading.

The Victorian situation has not helped anyone’s confidence.

Dare I comment on how things are going in NSW.

In addition, in September/October, those who have pretty gardens will consider entering the market.

We have all seen the extraordinary “Tourist” crowds up here in the last three or four weeks, with almost riots in the streets as they queue for a take away coffee or the rights to occupy limited tables.

But for how long?

With JobKeeper and Bank moratorium changes and the exclusion of overseas immigrants, in my professional view, this can’t last. Frankly my prediction is that there will be a significant fall, certainly in the last 2020 quarter.

We will have a situation of less JobKeeper, Banks starting to nag to be paid, possible foreclosures, and what is the virus doing?

You have until the JobKeeper extension time, namely two or three months, to get on with it, and that could be shortened by Covid-19 restrictions.

Well let’s see what happens.

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